BJOL NBA Power Ratings - The System
By Bill James
November 9, 2007
I have added here a Power Rating for NBA teams. These are done in the same way that the NCAA Football Rankings are done, which was explained in an article here. The only changes are:
1) I made the average team 200, rather than 100. I’m assuming 100 would be the standard for a college team.
2) The home field advantage—1.9 points in college football—is assumed to be 1 point in these ratings. (So far this year—granting it is limited data—the average NBA home team has outscored the average road team by a little less than two points—thus, -1 for the home team, +1 for the road team makes them essentially equal.)
3) I will change this system, later in the season, so that the late-season games count more than the early-season games. But this early in the season it wouldn’t make any difference, so I haven’t dealt with that yet.
It is so early in the season that the rankings are not very meaningful, of course. As of yesterday Detroit was the number one ranked team in the NBA, but they dropped by nine points after they lost to the Bulls—Chicago’s first win of the season. This early in the season, the ratings are so volatile that Atlanta dropped by almost five points yesterday, and they didn’t even play. But even now, the good teams are going to rate higher on average than the weaker teams, and within a couple of weeks the ratings will start to firm up.
Thanks... Bill James