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Hey Bill |
Hey Bill: In your opinion, why is the SF counted in the OBP formula, but not the Batting Avg. formula? The OBP and BA are pretty similar in the measurement of a player's getting on base, so why would SF bring one down but not the other? Thank you.
Asked by: yount19 Answered: June 3, 2008
You're asking for history to be consistent, but it never is. Batting average was defined in the 1860s. Sacrifice Hits were "excused" from at bats. . that is, the batter was given a pass when he bunted to advance a teammate. . .about 1900, forget the exact year. After several ill-fated efforts to re-define Sac Hits, Sacrifice Flies were taken out, and were also excused in the 1930s, reaching completion in the 1950s.
The official on base percentage formula was developed in the 1970s, at the urging and leadership of Alan Roth. Alan's idea was that Sacrifice Hits and Sacrifice Flies were distinct in that Sac Hits were deliberate actions, whereas Sacrifice Flies were "beneficial accidents" to the team, rather than something that could be done deliberately. He thus "excused" sac hits from the on base percentage formula, but not Sac Flies.
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I don't know about you, but I'm sick of the official scorers giving a hit to a batter who pops the pitch up on the infield (or outfield) and everyone lets it drop. The definition of an error, I believe, is that if the play is not made successfully with normal effort, it should be scored an error. Why do "they" have to attribute the Error to an individual? Why not call it a Team Error? After all, that's exactly what it is. Do you agree? Thank you.
Asked by: yount19 Answered: June 3, 2008
Couldn't agree any less.
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Hey Bill: I noticed it for the first time a few years ago that everytime a pitch hits the dirt, the ball is examined closely by the umpire and usually taken out of play. I don't recall this happening before, say, 5 years ago.
Asked by: yount19 Answered: June 3, 2008
It's been that way for a long, long time. Any ball that hits the dirt has been thrown out since. ..at least 1970, I would say.
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Hi Bill, do you think major league teams care very much whether their minor league affiliates win?
Asked by: Mark R. Answered: June 2, 2008
Well, it's kind of like being a good parent, I think. The father who is highly concerned that his child excel in the Little League. ....is that being a good parent? The guy who yells and screams at his kid to do better. .. is that really productive, in the big picture? I think that "parent teams" are rather like parents--that they like to see their children excel, they enjoy seeing them get some victories, and they understand the role of success in the development of skills, but they also understand that there's something else gong on here that it is perhaps more important in the big picture.
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Hey Bill, how could managers fit into your win shares system? I have to believe that you'd need to give them some credit for helping their teams win games.
Asked by: Mark R. Answered: June 2, 2008
Exactly the same way that the soul fits into medicine.
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Has the trend towards more relievers, many of them much more effective than a starter going on 110 or 120 pitches, led to a decline in pinch hitting? Could this be part of the reason that teams are keeping pitchers over bench players? Many or most players hit worse as pinch hitters than as starters, and this has to be exacerbated by facing Rivera, Papelbon, Ryan, et al.
Have we reached a point, at least in the AL, where the value of pinch hitting is nearing zero?
Asked by: Jon Wilt Answered: June 3, 2008
Well, yes and no. The trend toward more relievers has certainly led to a decline in pinch hitting, since there simply are not enough roster spots to carry six relievers and five pinch hitters. But this is not the REASON that teams are keeping pitchers over bench players; rather, the decline in pinch hitting is a CONSEQUENCE, not a cause.
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Hey Bill,
This maple bat shattering controversy has become important enough that Bud Selig is now looking for ways to remedy the situation and close a real liability for the MLB. This seems like the perfect time to implement a minimum bat width that is larger than now. This would have the added benefit of promoting contact hitting rather than home run hitting, a change that i am for and I believe you advocated for in the Historical Baseball Abstract. What's your take on this?
Asked by: Henry F. Answered: June 1, 2008
I did advocate this somewhere, and I still believe in it. The Union has the right to sign off on rules changes, but I would predict that the Union would sign off on the new rules if the current players were grandfathered in, and allowed to use the current bats. This would eliminate 90% of the problem within five or six years, and also contribute powerfully to restoring batting stats to historic norms.
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Vince Lombardi is also credited with saying the same thing regarding dancing and contact and football and collisions.
Asked by: smitty Answered: June 1, 2008
I kind of depends on who you're dancing with. . .
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Bill Russell, in calling football a collision sport, used the words of Duffy Daugherty, the old Michigan State football coach. Daugherty objected to football being merely a contact sport, and said, "Dancing is a contact sport. Football is a collision sport."
Asked by: Jongro Answered: June 1, 2008
OK. I thought the phrase went back before Bill Russell, actually.
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Kevin Youkilis is again posting terrific 1st-half numbers, a trend that has existed throughout his career. Is this a real trend or mere coincidence, and if it is a real trend, what is the cause and how are the Sawx trying to adjust to it?
Asked by: David J. Fleming Answered: May 31, 2008
In general, in-season batting trends have very little predictive significance.
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"Is anybody else reading old enough to remember when announcers used to say that basketball was a non-contact sport?" Not a question but thought you might like this. Many (many) years ago while watching a basketball game on TV I heard Bill Russell (insert the word "great" in front of his name say: "Basketball is a contact sport, football is a collision sport.”
Asked by: Anonymous Answered: May 31, 2008
Right. . .I remember that. It was a response to the then-comment remark that basketball was a non-contact sport. That was Russell's--or whoever it was--his way of saying that basketball was NOT a non-contact sport.
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Bill, do you watch The Office? Thoughts?
Asked by: Jeremy Answered: May 31, 2008
Regularly. Only show of its kind I do watch.
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The question about the 2007 exit class has to bring up the question that some of their exits are due to off-season events that link them together.
Other than the 1919 Black Sox, has there ever been a mass exit for a discernable cause?
Asked by: Trailbzr Answered: May 31, 2008
Ishtar.
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Hey Bill,
As a Royals fan, I'm surprised you didn't mention the 1993 class. Brett, Yount, Ryan, and Fisk is pretty damn good!
Asked by: Blackadder Answered: May 31, 2008
OK.
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The Braves are now something like 2-16 in one-run games, and have lost 19 straight one run games on the road.
Few questions/comments:
1) can this really be dumb (bad) luck? imo, in watching their games, they can't seem to manufacture a run or get a big hit...
2) At what point does it set a precedence? this can't be historically unique, right?
3) Because of this, they are off their pythag record by 4 games. How does the pythag formula account for the diminising utility of runs? (i.e., 3 to 5 very valuable, run 10 not so usually)
Asked by: Doug Cox Answered: June 1, 2008
Some economist had to be the first to measure the Cost of Living. I am certain people asked him if this accounted for the winter sale at Macy's. It's the same question. The Pythagorean Formula doesn't adjust for EACH run; it adjusts for all the runs. Every team, in the long run, is going to have close games where every run counts and blowouts where they don't, with some variations which are relativley minor in most cases and significant is a few cases.
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How good is Chase Utley?
Asked by: Anthony Z Answered: May 31, 2008
He is certainly the greatest player in baseball history named either "Chase" or "Utley". Here's a Home Run Call for Chase Utley: C U , C U Later.
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Regarding your comments about Bonds. I note that with Sosa and Piazza retiring recently that 2007 could be the last season for Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza, Sosa. A strong argument can be made that Bonds and Clemens were the best hitter and pitcher of the post war era or at least since 1970. Piazza is the best offensive catcher in history. sosa is a top home run hitter and Biggio could rank among the top five second basemen. Discounting for substance enhancement, they are all clearly Hall of Fame players. Has there even been a year that so many quality players retired at the same time. I know that after 1956 Jackie Robinson and Bob Feller retired but Robinson, while one of the most significant players in Baseball history was not as good as Bonds. Feller could be as good as Clemens if you consider the prime years he lost to the war. However adding Piazza, Biggio and Sosa to the equation creates an uniquwe situation. is there any parallel?
Asked by: Mel Solomon Answered: May 31, 2008
1893 was the last season for Tim Keefe, Bob Caruthers, Jim O'Rourke, King Kelly, Harry Stovey, and several lesser stars like Henry Larkin and Mark Baldwin. There was a group of stars that retired in 1908 and another group in 1909--in 1908, Joe Kelley, Kid Gleason, Fielder Jones, Jimmy Collins, Joe McGinnity, John Anderson, Deacon McGuire. I should say "left the majors". . .several of these players continued to play for years afterward in the minors. . Joe McGinnity for another 20 years. In 1909 George Davis, Bill Dahlen, Roy THomas, Al Orth, Jesse Tannehill, Jack Chesbro JImmy Williams.
A bigger group than that left the majors after the 1917 season, including at least six Hall of Famers (Honus Wagner, Sam Crawford, Eddie Plank Johnny Evers, Ed Walsh and Chief Bender). . also many others, including Ed Reulbach and Chief Meyers.
There was a huge flood of players went out in '27, '28 and '29, although I don't know that any one year outranks 1917. . .Walter Johnson, Zack Wheat and Jacques Fournier in '27, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Stan Coveleski and others in '28, Eddie Collins, Max Carey, Dave Bancroft and others in '29. Or did Collins play a little bit in '30? Think maybe he did.
There was a pretty good group went out in '37 (Rogers Hornsby, Frankie Frisch, Mickey Cochrane, Pie Traynor, Jim Bottomley, Jesse Haines, Chick Hafey). That's 7 Hall of Famers, but 3 of them not really deserving Hall of Famers.
Of course, there was a big group that went out in 1945, at the end of the war (Jimmie Foxx, Paul Waner, Joe Cronin, Bob Johnson, Lloyd Waner, Dolh Camilli) but a probably MORE impressive group that exited after 1947 (Mel Ott, Red Ruffing, Stan Hack, Billy Herman, Hank Greenberg, Mel Harder, Doc Cramer, Ernie Lombardi, Rick Ferrell, Dizzy Dean, Al Lopez).
There was a fairly good group that left after 1959 (Enos Slaughter, Mickey Vernon, Larry Doby, Del Ennis, Carl Furillo). . .good, but not historic. After '66 Koufax retired--retiring as clearly the best pitcher in baseball--also Robin Roberts, Jim Gilliam, Joe Adock, Harvey Kuenn, Bob Friend. Again, good, not historic.
There were a series of big classes exiting '71 through '74. . .not one above the others, though. The next REALLY big class was 1979, which was th elast year for Lou Brock, Willie Davis, Catfish Hunter, and an unusual number of memorable minor stars like Roy White, George Scott, Rico Carty and THurman Munson.
1983 was a huge class, monster class: Carl Yastrzemski, Gaylord Perry, Johnny Bench and Fergie Jenkins, also Jim Kaat, Bert Campaneris, Bobby Murcer and others. They were joined in '84 by Joe Morgan, Jim Palmer, and perhaps the greatest player who ever lived, Amos Otis.
1986 is huge. . .Pete Rose, Tom Seaver, Tony Perez, Cesar Cedeno, many, many others (Bobby Grich, George Foster, Dusty Baker, Vida Blue, Dave Kingman).
1987 almost as big. . .Reggie Jackson, Phil Niekro, Steve Garvey, Bill Madlock, Hal McRae, Cecil Cooper.
After that the next really big exit group is 2001--Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, Harold Baines, Tony Fernandez, Jose Canseco, Bobby Bonilla, Paul O'Neill, Wally Joyner, Ken Caminiti, Eric Davis.
OK, I haven't answered your question, have I? I guess we'll let time sort it out. Some of the players you mentioned may play again. If not, it might well rank as the gaudiest exit class of all time.
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Hey Bill, I enjoyed the Bonds/Ruth comparison, but really, was Ruth mostly responsible for the huge turn around by the Braves? I suspect you will say no, but just how responsible was he percentage wise? And how would you distribute the rest of the responsibility to the pitching, defense, hitting, etc? Thanks.
Asked by: RanBricker Answered: May 31, 2008
I would guess that the distraction of having Ruth around was 95% responsible for what happened to the Braves that season. Signing Ruth sent a message to the other players on the team that can be interpreted as "We don't believe in you" or "We're not serious about winning here." Maybe it SHOULDN'T have been taken that way, maybe it shouldn't have come out that way, but. . .it did.
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